Planning for the next 15 years
It’s almost impossible to predict the future, especially if you try to imagine what
the world will be like 15 years from now. However, one group that has been
around for over four decades is trying to do just that: the World Future
Society. They are a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational
association of 25,000 people curious about what social and technological
developments lay ahead. According to them, the world will be a much different
one in 15 years.
They predict that weapons of mass destruction will be much easier to obtain and
that terrorists may switch from bombs to creating havoc on a cellular level.
Speaking of which, WFS also believes people will be able to rearrange their
genes to change their physical features and extend their lifespan. There will
be fewer teachers and schools, as people will be
“virtually” learning from home. Robots will assist the elderly. Hydrogen fuel cells will be
cost competitive. The list goes on and on.
While the rest of the world has to rely on experts, psychics or crystal balls,
drycleaners actually know exactly what the future holds. In 15 years, there
will be no more perc drycleaning in California. Period. For some, CARB
’s perc ruling was the equivalent of the sky falling. For the optimists, however,
it is a challenge to overcome
— an opportunity to change the way they do business and find new ways to be
profitable. Regardless, the future for California cleaners is set in stone. The
only uncertain thing is whether the trend to ban perc will expand to a national
scale.
The perc ruling has certainly been a long time coming, and its recent passage
didn
’t sneak up on anybody who keeps informed in the industry. All it means now is
that the clock is officially ticking. Cleaners can no longer procrastinate.
Perhaps at the last Clean Show, you skipped over examining
“alternate” solvent technologies; but now that there is a mandate, it’s time to start researching. Good thing there is another Clean Show (on the West
Coast no less) just around the corner in June.
Big changes are coming now and cleaners must prepare for them. Sure, you can
always move your business and hope other states don
’t follow California’s lead. (Good luck with that.) Or you can start planning your retirement and
exit strategy. But if you want to ensure that you will be around longer than 15
years, you will have to rethink the way you do business. It
’s time to examine the alternatives, and, with any luck, you’ll choose one wisely. After all, it’s almost impossible to predict the future. Who knows if any of them will one day
end up in the crosshairs of CARB or some other regulatory agency.
Looking back at the last 15 years
A wise person once said, “If you are feeling overwhelmed by your worries today, try to recall what it was
that you were worrying about a year ago.
”
Chances are, you won’t be able to remember just what it was that was bugging you. Or if you can
remember, you will recall it is an issue since resolved, or something that wasn
’t worth worrying about in the first place. Likewise, as we look to the future 15
years hence, we should pause and recall what the drycleaning world was like 15
years ago.
Alternative solvents? In 1992, DF2000 was still in the laboratory. Cleaning in
petroleum solvent was practiced by some cleaners, but they were mainly
hold-outs from the perc revolution that had run its course a few years earlier.
Washers, dryers and chemicals for machine wetcleaning were about to be
introduced. The newest wetcleaning process involved, as best as we can remember
now, a technique of spritzing garments with some esoteric formula and tossing
them in a dryer. EPA was quite excited about this
“breakthrough” at the time, although it didn’t capture the fancy of actual working drycleaners.
Mentioning Rynex or GreenEarth to a drycleaner in 1992 would have brought a
quizzical look. Never heard of them (and wouldn
’t yet for a few years.) Now we have so many “alternative solvents” that you need a checklist just to name them. And more are on the horizon.
Another solvent, Valclene, had just been eliminated due concerns about damage to
the ozone layer. Is it missed today?
This is not to say that things will just work themselves out. We will have to
work them out. But the cleaners of 2023 will surely look back on the industry
as it was in 2007 and ask,
“Remember when…?”